Fall 2014 (Vol. 53, No. 3)

Forecast of CO2 Emissions from the U.S. Transporation Sector: Estimation From a Double Exponential Smoothing Model

Abstract

This study examines whether the decreasing trend in U.S. CO2 emissions from the transportation sector since the end of the 2000s will be shown across all states in the nation for 2012?2021. A double exponential smoothing model is used to forecast CO2 emissions for the transportation sector in the 50 states and the U.S., and its findings are supported by the validity test of pseudo out-of-sample forecasts. We conclude that the decreasing trend in transportation CO2 emissions in the U.S. will continue in most states in the future.

by Jaesung Choi, David C. Roberts, and Eunsu Lee

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